Response of the West African Monsoon to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Observations show that rainfall over West Africa is influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A number of mechanisms have been suggested: 1) forcing by equatorial waves; 2) enhanced monsoon moisture supply; and 3) increased African easterly wave (AEW) activity. However, previous observational studies are not able to unambiguously distinguish between cause and effect. Carefully designed model experiments are used to assess these mechanisms. Intraseasonal convective anomalies over West Africa during the summer monsoon season are simulated in an atmosphere-only global circulation model as a response to imposed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the MJO over the equatorial warm pool region. 1) Negative SST anomalies stabilize the atmosphere leading to locally reduced convection. The reduced convection leads to negative midtropospheric latent heating anomalies that force dry equatorial waves. These waves propagate eastward (Kelvin wave) and westward (Rossby wave), reaching Africa approximately 10 days later. The associated negative temperature anomalies act to destabilize the atmosphere, resulting in enhanced monsoon convection over West and central Africa. The Rossby waves are found to be the most important component, with associated westward-propagating convective anomalies over West Africa. The eastward-propagating equatorial Kelvin wave also efficiently triggers convection over the eastern Pacific and Central America, consistent with observations. 2) An increase in boundary layer moisture is found to occur as a result of the forced convective anomalies over West Africa rather than a cause. 3) Increased shear on the African easterly jet, leading to increased AEW activity, is also found to occur as a result of the forced convective anomalies in the model

Coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions between the Madden–Julian oscillation and synoptic-scale variability over the warm pool

A principal component analysis of the combined fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface zonal and meridional wind reveals the dominant mode of intraseasonal (30-70-day) co-variability during northern winter in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere is that of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Regression calculations show that the submonthly (30-day high-pass filtered) surface wind variability is significantly modulated during the MJO. Regions of increased (decreased) submonthly surface wind variability propagate eastward, approximately in phase with the intraseasonal surface westerly (easterly) anomalies of the MJO. Due to the dependence of the surface latent heat flux on the magnitude of the total wind speed, this systematic modulation of the submonthly surface wind variability produces a significant component in the intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies, which partially cancels the latent heat flux anomalies due to the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies, particularly south of 10S. A method is derived that demodulates the submonthly surface wind variability from the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies. This method is applied to the wind forcing fields of a one-dimensional ocean model. The model response to this modified forcing produces larger intraseasonal SST anomalies than when the model is forced with the observed forcing over large areas of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean during both phases of the MJO. This result has implications for accurate coupled modeling of the MJO. A similar calculation is applied to the surface shortwave flux, but intraseasonal modulation of submonthly surface shortwave flux variability does not appear to be important to the dynamics of the MJO

A thermodynamical model for rainfall-triggered volcanic dome collapse

Dome-forming volcanic eruptions typically involve the slow extrusion of viscous lava onto a steep-sided volcano punctuated by collapse and the generation of hazardous pyroclastic flows. We show an unequivocal link between the onset of intense rainfall and lava dome collapse on short time scales (within a few hours) and develop a simple thermodynamical model to explain this behavior. The model is forced with rainfall observations from the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and suggests that when the dome is in a critical state, a minimum rainfall rate of approximately 15 mm hr-1 for 2-3 hr could trigger a dome collapse

Atmospheric response to observed intraseasonal tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

The major tropical convective and circulation features of the intraseasonal or Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are simulated as a passive response to observed MJO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), strengthening the case for ocean-atmosphere interactions being central to MJO dynamics. However, the magnitude of the surface fluxes diagnosed from the MJO cycle in the AGCM, that would feed back onto the ocean in a coupled system, are much weaker than in observations. The phasing of the convective-dynamical model response to the MJO SST anomalies and the associated surface flux anomalies is too fast compared to observations of the (potentially) coupled system, and would act to damp the SST anomalies

Dynamical propagation and growth mechanisms for convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves over the Indian Ocean

Convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are high-impact tropical weather systems that can lead to severe flooding over the Maritime Continent. Here, a vorticity budget for CCKWs over the Indian Ocean is constructed using reanalysis data, to identify the basic mechanisms of eastward propagation and growth. The budget is reasonably well closed, with a small residual/sub-gridscale term. In the lower troposphere, CCKWs behave like strongly modified theoretical equatorial Kelvin waves. Vortex stretching, from the divergence of the Kelvin wave acting on planetary vorticity (the -fD term), is the sole mechanism by which the vorticity structure of a theoretical Kelvin wave propagates eastward. In the lower and middle troposphere, this term is also the key mechanism for the eastward propagation of CCKWs but, due to subtleties in its structure and phasing linked to a combination of modal structures, it also contributes to growth. Unlike in the theoretical Kelvin wave, other vorticity source terms also play a role in the propagation and growth of CCKWs. In particular, vortex stretching from relative vorticity (the -zeta D term) is the largest source term, and this leads strongly to growth, through interactions between the background and perturbation vorticity and divergence. Horizontal vorticity advection by the background flow contributes to propagation, and also acts to retard the growth of the CCKW. The sum of the source terms in this complex vorticity budget leads to eastward propagation and growth of CCKWs. The structure and vorticity budget of CCKWs in the upper troposphere is quite unlike that of a Kelvin wave, and appears to arise as a forced response to the lower tropospheric structure. The implications for numerical weather prediction and climate simulations are discussed

Development of food photographs for use with children aged 18 months to 16 years:comparison against weighed food diaries – The Young Person’s Food Atlas (UK)

Traditional dietary assessment methods, used in the UK, such as weighed food diaries impose a large participant burden, often resulting in difficulty recruiting representative samples and underreporting of energy intakes. One approach to reducing the burden placed on the participant is to use portion size assessment tools to obtain an estimate of the amount of food consumed, removing the need to weigh all foods. An age range specific food atlas was developed for use in assessing children’s dietary intakes. The foods selected and portion sizes depicted were derived from intakes recorded during the UK National Diet and Nutrition Surveys of children aged 1.5 to 16 years. Estimates of food portion sizes using the food atlas were compared against 4-day weighed intakes along with in-school / nursery observations, by the research team. Interviews were conducted with parents the day after completion of the diary, and for children aged 4 to 16 years, also with the child. Mean estimates of portion size consumed were within 7% of the weight of food recorded in the weighed food diary. The limits of agreement were wide indicating high variability of estimates at the individual level but the precision increased with increasing age. For children 11 years and over, agreement with weighed food diaries, was as good as that of their parents in terms of total weight of food consumed and of intake of energy and key nutrients. The age appropriate food photographs offer an alternative to weighed intakes for dietary assessment with children